Seasonal Trends Keep Home Prices Higher for Fourth Consecutive Month

August 31, 2011 (Chris Moore)

National monthly home prices increased by a modest 0.8 percent for the second consecutive month in July according to CoreLogic’s July Home Price Index (HPI), but prices were still 5.2 percent lower than a year ago.

July marks the fourth consecutive month in which monthly home prices have seen an increase. Although year-over-year price comparisons continue to see a decline, when excluding distressed sales, the home prices in July were only 0.6 percent lower than those in July of 2010.

Compared to the market peak in April 2006, home prices have declined 30.5 percent when including distressed property sales and when excluding distressed property sales, home prices have dropped 20.7 percent since the market peak.

CoreLogic defines distressed property sales as short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“While July’s numbers remained relatively positive, particularly for non-distressed sales which have been stable, seasonal influences are expected to fade in late summer. At that point, the month-over-month growth will most likely turn negative. The slowdown in economic growth and increased uncertainty caused by the recent stock market volatility will continue to exert downward pressure on prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Eighty-six out of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) experienced year over year price declines in July 2011, which was a decrease from 88 reported in June 2011.

The five states with the highest year-over-year (YOY) appreciation including distressed sales were: West Virginia (+14.0 percent), New York (+3.3 percent), Wyoming (+3.2 percent), Mississippi (+2.4 percent), and the District of Columbia (+2.3 percent). In June 2011, those states were: New York (+3.3 percent), the District of Columbia (+2.4 percent), North Dakota (+1.2 percent), Alaska (+0.1 percent) and Nebraska (+0.1 percent).

The five states with the greatest YOY depreciation including distressed sales were: Nevada (-12.2 percent), Arizona (-11.9 percent), Illinois (-10.0 percent) Minnesota (-8.6 percent), and Idaho (-7.8 percent). In June 2011, those states were Nevada (-12.4 percent), Idaho (-12.3 percent), Arizona (-12.3 percent), Illinois (-12.2 percent) and Minnesota (-9.6 percent).

The five states with the highest YOY appreciation excluding distressed sales were: West Virginia (+16.8 percent), South Carolina (+5.5 percent), New York (+4.1 percent), Wyoming (+3.8 percent), and North Dakota (+3.6 percent). In June 2011, those states were: North Dakota (+5.9 percent), New York (+4.6 percent), West Virginia (+3.6 percent), Texas (+2.8 percent) and Vermont (+2.6 percent).

The five states with the greatest YOY depreciation excluding distressed sales were: Nevada (-9.6 percent), Arizona (-8.1 percent), Delaware (-6.5 percent), Minnesota (-5.7 percent), and Michigan (-4.7 percent). In June 2011, those states were: Nevada (-9.9 percent), Arizona (-8.0 percent), Mississippi (-7.3 percent), Minnesota (-6.8 percent) and Delaware (-6.7 percent).

Tags: CoreLogic, home prices, distressed property sales, appreciation, depreciation

Sources:
CoreLogic