April 1, 2011 (Jeff Alan)
A housing panel consisting of economists and real estate experts, predicts that housing prices will likely continue to slide for two more years with a tentative projection of a weak recovery beginning in 2013. Nearly half of the 111 economists polled by MacroMarkets, co-founded by industry expert Robert Shiller, believe the housing market will see a double-dip in housing prices sometime this year.
Overall, the panel predicts that home prices will likely decline another 1.4 percent this year. In 2012, the panel believes that most of the losses experienced this year would be made back with prices finally rising above current levels starting in 2013, with a foreseen gain of only 2.7 percent. Even by 2015, the panel predicts that there will be a gain of less than 10 percent over current prices.
In a similar survey back in December, only 15 percent of the panelists surveyed projected the possibility of a new post-crash low, compared to 50 percent today.
Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director, said, “In December, only 15 percent of our panelists were projecting that a new post-crash low would materialize for national home prices. Now, just three months later, almost 50 percent foresee a double-dip happening this year, and not a single panelist expects national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming five years.”
Shiller attributes the panel’s dismal outlook on high unemployment, market oversupply, the continuing foreclosure crisis, and constrained mortgage credit.
Loeb notes in the monthly Home Price Expectations Survey that home price levels are already nearing the panels predictions as home prices at the national level are now less than 1 percent away from establishing a new post-crash low.
Loeb described the latest survey results as “the most pessimistic collected to date.”
Tags: housing panel, economists, real estate experts, housing prices, Robert Shiller, double-dip, home price decline, high unemployment, foreclosure crisis, oversupply