Home Prices Fall for Second Consecutive Month but Yearly Gap Closing

November 8, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Monthly national home prices fell for the second consecutive month, declining 1.1 percent in September after falling 0.4 percent in August according to CoreLogic’s September Home Price Index (HPI).

Despite the price declines in the last two months, the difference in year-over-year prices continues to shrink with prices in September 4.1 percent lower than last year while the price difference in August was 4.4 percent. In July the difference was 4.8 percent, in June it was 6.0 percent, in May it was 7.4 percent and in April it was 7.5 percent.

Distressed property sales continue to have a significant impact on housing prices as year-over-year prices in September would only be 1.1 percent lower if distressed property sales were excluded.

Since the market peak in April 2006, home prices have declined 31.2 percent when including distressed property sales and when excluding distressed property sales, home prices have dropped 21.9 percent since the market peak.

CoreLogic defines distressed property sales as short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“Even with low interest rates, demand for houses remains muted. Home sales are down in September and the inventory of homes for sale remains elevated. Home prices are adjusting to correct for the supply-demand imbalance and we expect declines to continue through the winter. Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Eight-two out of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) experienced year-over-year price declines in September, which was unchanged from the revised amount reported in August.

The five states with the highest year-over-year (YOY) appreciation including distressed sales were: West Virginia (+7.0 percent), Wyoming (+3.8 percent), South Dakota (+3.6 percent), Maine (+3.5 percent), and North Dakota (+3.1 percent). In August, those states were: West Virginia (+8.6 percent), Wyoming (+3.6 percent), North Dakota (+3.5 percent), New York (+3.2 percent), and Alaska (+2.2 percent).

The five states with the greatest YOY depreciation including distressed sales were: Nevada (-12.4 percent), Illinois (-9.2 percent), Arizona (-9.0 percent), Minnesota (-8.3 percent), and Georgia (-7.2 percent). In August, those states were Nevada (-12.4 percent), Arizona (-10.7 percent), Illinois (-9.6 percent), Minnesota (-7.8 percent), and Georgia (-7.2 percent).

The five states with the highest YOY appreciation excluding distressed sales were: West Virginia (+13.2 percent), Maine (+5.8 percent), Wyoming (+4.8 percent), Montana (+4.4 percent), and Kansas (+3.9 percent). In August, those states were: West Virginia (+10.7 percent), Mississippi (+4.8 percent), Hawaii (+4.4 percent), North Dakota (+4.2 percent), and Kansas (+3.7 percent).

The five states with the greatest YOY depreciation excluding distressed sales were: Nevada (-9.6 percent), Arizona (-7.7 percent), Minnesota (-5.9 percent), Michigan (-4.8 percent), and Delaware (-3.7 percent). In August, those states were: Nevada (-8.8 percent), Arizona (-8.3 percent), Delaware (-4.9 percent), Michigan (-4.3 percent), and Minnesota (-4.2 percent).

Tags: CoreLogic, home prices, distressed property sales, appreciation, depreciation

Sources:
CoreLogic